Billionaire Howard Marks Predicts Another Market Crash | Time to bet Against the Market.
Emerging Currency Crisis - The Global US Dollar Shortage Explained
Load more...
.
The ruble will continue to depreciate against the dollar and the euro for another year. The combination of many factors has led to the appreciation of the domestic currency: oil prices have fallen, which is beyond OPEC’s control; the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may resume currency purchases; the possibility of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; the possible introduction of the second part of sanctions . The forecast of USD/Ruble for 2020 is 68.5-76; Euro/Ruble is -77-84. For me, the ruble is not an accumulated currency. Traditionally, the authorities have solved economic problems by devaluing the ruble. It does not matter whether the ruble will collapse again now or in three years. 
The mortgage loan rate may increase by 0.4-0.6% during the year. From January to February, we will see the peak of the local annual inflation rate of -5.5-6.2%. Within 5 years, the share of state-owned banks may be increased to 77-81%. Meeting held in.
Only in 2020 will we begin to feel the real strengthening of the tax media. Therefore, yes, you need to be prepared to tighten your seat belts, handle financial matters carefully and maintain accuracy. Due to inflation risks and the tightening of monetary policies by central banks around the world, the central bank may not lower the key interest rate from the current level (7.77%) until the end of 2020. If there are new sanctions and large sales of ruble assets, it is possible to increase the exchange rate. However, considering the experience of the third quarter of 2020, we believe that regulators may be more willing to adjust the foreign currency purchases of the Ministry of Finance to stabilize the market.
The main risks for economic growth are in 2020: unfavorable oil price dynamics, completion of the transition to permanent fiscal rules, increased value-added tax rates, suspension of key interest rate cuts, adaptation to sanctions imposed in 2020... In these cases, growth will The 1.8 slowdown increased from% in 2020 to 1.3% in 2020. In the next few years, our economy may still face the risk of increased sanctions. We do not expect the investment environment to improve in 2020; the state's capacity will also be limited. Unfortunately, the negative news prevailed: tax burdens increased, inflation expectations increased, the role of the state in the economy increased, and the investment environment deteriorated.
The global situation is grim, the commodity market is turbulent, the slowdown in the world economy has led to a decrease in Russian export demand, an increase in value-added tax (which will eat up some consumer demand), the central bank’s policy to curb inflationary pressure, and the slowdown in corporate loan growth. From a consumer's point of view, this will be more difficult than 2020 and 2018. But this will not be catastrophic. The increase in tax burden will cause the real income of Russians to continue to decline. The prices of almost all goods and services will rise. Since the tax burden of the population has increased since January, the currency exchange rate and energy prices of the country have fallen over the years. Nevertheless, the most likely development plan is the continued growth of the Russian economy, provided that the upward trend of loans to the population continues. Risk factors include expanding and strengthening EU and US sanctions aimed at weakening the Russian economy. , Expert. A defensive investment portfolio designed to retain capital in the face of rising inflation.
Due to the influence of compound interest, it is allowed to increase the potential profitability.
They have not left the radar and will continue to exert pressure on the Russian market throughout 2020. The next stage, including the second round of sanctions related to the case, may only be made public at the end of the first quarter of 2020.
The deterioration of the external environment and the pressure of sanctions on Russia will not be able to fully realize the full potential of the basic growth of the Russian market. Therefore, we believe that 2,641 points are the target level of the Moscow Exchange Index in 2020, and we believe that this goal may be achieved within one year. In our baseline scenario, we took into account the essential nature of anti-Russian sanctions-we believe that there is no justification for sectoral sanctions against banks or oil and gas companies.
Russia and the world will cross the abyss. A crisis comparable to Lehman Brothers continues to threaten the global financial system. We believe that the US stock market will burst and the world will face a recession. We expect the Standard & Poor's index to be 1 point next year and the Moscow Stock Exchange index to be 1511 points. Oil, currencies, and emerging market stocks will be under pressure. As a result of the crisis, the current global dollar world has the opportunity to split into several currency zones. Western countries collectively will lose control of the global economy. China will become the new global leader. Asia, increasing life expectancy and the digital revolution-these trends are unstoppable. We urge investors not to ignore these trends. Although the large-scale economic transformation of emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region is far from complete, it is time to invest in the region to benefit from its huge economic growth potential.
Since 2015, discussions about the onset of the global crisis have been ongoing. On average, a crisis occurs every 11 years. Therefore, given that the last major global crisis occurred in 2009, it is expected that it will happen again in a few years. However, it is not clear what might be the trigger. It is very likely that trade protectionist policies will slow down the development of the world economy or slow down the US debt crisis. In this case, not only the stock market will collapse, but the oil market will also collapse.
Trump has ample opportunity to implement his own economic policy line, which means that the uncertainty associated with the unexpected political decision of the current US President has not exceeded the agenda and will remain one of the risks in 2020. These are the main themes of the upcoming year and initial data for 2020. The US-China trade agreement will be the subject of the first few months of 2020. I think these countries will be able to reach an agreement, and it is worth noting that they are working towards this. The slowdown in company profit growth will also become the focus of investors' attention. It seems that the United States has already had a major positive impact on the economy. Today, companies find themselves facing rising interest rates, accumulating debt, and the risk of stagnant consumer demand, suffering from saturation on the one hand and debt on the other. The burden of increasing constraints. China is the main victim of US attacks, and Europe is still a prisoner of internal problems and divorce from Britain, so it is difficult to expect a new round of global economic growth there. The initial crisis is likely to be the result of the spiraling up of the short-term credit cycle, which we observed in the form of the first sign of the flattening of the US government debt yield curve. Judging from the current parameters of household and corporate debt, the future crisis looks more like the crisis of 2002 than the global economic crisis or the Great Depression. In this case, the Fed will not have to start a new quantitative easing program and buy out national debt.
For this year, the state of the oil market will mainly depend on US oil production and the implementation of the agreement. In a relatively balanced market, the price of a barrel of oil may be in the range of US$51-81 per barrel. As long as we continue to impose soft sanctions on Iran, we acknowledge that oil prices may fall to US$51 per barrel in the short term. If the OPEC+ agreement is extended to next year, we can expect that there will be a shortage of oil in the market and the price will rise to US$81-91 per barrel. In the best case, they will not grow much in a few months. Therefore, just like what happened after the freeze (the government and oil merchants agreed), the freeze will be unfrozen. Defrosting is always very painful.
At the same time, the USD/Ruble exchange rate will be between 66-71. The global economic slowdown and the slowdown in China's economic growth may push oil prices up to US$51-46 per barrel. At the same time, any intensification of the conflict in the Middle East will be able to stimulate growth to $71-76 per barrel. This will depend on the negative impact of oversupply. The projected increase in U.S. production will offset the impact of the 1.3 million barrel cut. As part of the + transaction on 13/7/2020, the daily fee. At present, we have not observed the basic factors that can reverse the downward trend of black gold quotes.
The favorable economic preconditions can be lifted by the already announced painful economic sanctions against the Russian Federation and certain companies. We do not expect significant deviations in the US dollar index in 2020. Most likely, it will continue to move in the middle of the two-year range of. In both positive and negative circumstances, the ruble index of the Moscow Exchange may refresh its quite close to the highest level in history (2511.). If the risk of sanctions is reduced, we will observe its normal organic growth reaching new heights.
The development of the market will fundamentally change the stock market. In the past year and a half, it has undergone great changes under the influence of new technologies, and even greater changes may occur in the next few years. In the future, the main flow of customers entering the stock market will be provided by banks. In the next year and a half, a button will appear in all key banking applications. All major banks are aware of this trend. I think the point of no return has passed.
For a year, I look forward to the weakness in the stock markets of retail chains (due to reduced population income) and telecommunications companies (). Investor interest in them can only be supported by dividend yields. What I see is better than the market:. Traditionally, most dividend payments will be made from May to July, when the company will pay its shareholders an annual dividend. Many securities will be marked with record dividends and dividend yields. For example, the forward dividend yield of stocks is in the range of 8-11%. In this regard, it can be expected that the quotations of securities for dividends in June will increase. The stocks of export-oriented companies with high dividends will be equally attractive.
In the coming year, the most outstanding representative of the Russian telecommunications industry is. In 2020, the securities of these companies may be interesting, but so far the situation is not so obvious.
Among Russian companies that focus on the domestic market, dividend securities in the power industry deserve attention. In 2020, it is worth reading the papers and carefully.
For one year, I suggest you pay attention to the security field. Network security is one of the hot topics recently. We can expect that the frequency and complexity of cyber attacks will increase.
In the absence of any obvious investors, this is also very difficult for investors.
Over the years, the devaluation trend of the ruble will continue. Therefore, export-oriented industries (such as oil and gas, non-ferrous metallurgy and gold) that will benefit from the devaluation of the ruble next year will perform better than the market. In the main investment proposal for next year, we will select two companies-and.
For a year, it is necessary to carefully study the share of companies in the field of alternative energy. In the past ten years, the company has invested more than $1 trillion in the development of alternative energy sources. The popularity of energy is growing rapidly all over the world.
The economic downturn is not a death sentence for the stock market. Russia's absolute value has only now reached the mid-2015 level, and considering the reinvestment of dividends, Russian stocks have grown by 111% during this period. This is possible because most stock markets are represented by large exporters who have benefited from the devaluation of the ruble. In the past decade, the Russian market has been greatly underestimated in terms of basic indicators. There is already a negative situation in stock prices. The expected depreciation of the ruble once again provides an opportunity for some exporters to grow in value next year.
So far, there are no boisterous stories about artificial intelligence, so everyone is scrambling to invest here. What could it be? For example, self-driving cars. Now there will be driverless car companies conducting initial public offerings, and we all want to participate. Smart homes will be used in self-driving cars. Has been introduced into the home video surveillance system market. We are in a boom period, an artificial intelligence bubble period, and soon. In the next year or two.
However, since the United States may impose sanctions on state-owned banks, it is best to postpone the purchase of stocks for the time being. And quotations are still under pressure. The solar storm will hit the Western Hemisphere, destroy most of the satellites on the other side of the earth, and cause incredible chaos in the dependent transportation and electrical infrastructure. How much will it cost? About 2 trillion US dollars. This powerful combination hints at the official start of recession, because Pluto is the planet of crisis and Saturn is the system. The simple explanation is the beginning of a systemic crisis. Combine with Jupiter-in world politics and global economy.
Jupiter has become particularly prominent in recent years. The reason is likely to be weak cash flow. Jupiter will continue to be in direct motion until April 12, 2129, after which it will begin a period of retrograde motion until July 12. This means that the nearest breaking point-the next local extremum of the index, can be expected at the beginning of the second or third quarter of 2129. In the foreseeable future, the index is likely to complete the wave that started from the low of January 21, 2127.
Trump is facing a crisis that few people thought of a year ago: Food shortages are almost everywhere in the rest of the world. The severe drought associated with the El Niño phenomenon has led to a decline in global food production, further destroying the structure of trade commodities that has been disrupted by the tariff war. Hunger spreads. North America has attracted the attention of the world, where the yield and supply are abundant. The United States can help.
In the case of using all or part of the material, you need to link to. Learn more about usage information and quotes. The editor is not responsible for the accuracy of the information published in the advertisement.
License No. 2800 dated September 30, 2127 for banking business with rubles and foreign currency funds. Emerging Currency Crisis - The Global US Dollar Shortage Explained